Showing posts with label composite tank. Show all posts
Showing posts with label composite tank. Show all posts

Thursday, August 13, 2015

Orbital rockets are now easy.

Copyright 2015 Robert Clark


Falcon 1 Upper Stage Based Orbital Launcher.
 In the blog post "On the lasting importance of the SpaceX accomplishment" I suggested that SpaceX's low cost, commercial approach to developing the Falcon 9 will lead to this being emulated by other launch providers and then, eventually, to spaceflight becoming routine. However, ironically, it might turn out their simplest development and one they dispensed with will have the fastest effect towards making orbital access routine.

  It's the Falcon 1 upper stage. Compared to the first stage and certainly compared to the Falcon 9, it's a rather simple stage only using a pressure-fed engine, the Kestrel




Kestrel engine

  Pressure-fed engines and stages are much easier to develop than pump-fed ones. For instance there are the rockets developed by Armadillo AerospaceMasten Space Systems, and Garvey Spacecraft Corporation

 And this was also the case for the Project Morpheus lunar lander stage. In the blog post "The Morpheus lunar lander as a manned lander for the Moon", I discussed the NASA's Project Morpheus emulating a low-cost commercial space approach was able to develop two Morpheus landers for only $14 million. And actually the parts only costs were in the range of $750,000 per lander.

 The construction costs for pressure-fed engines can also be low cost. For instance Project Morpheus was able to produce their engines at a cost of only $60,000:

NASA dreams of future Morpheus project templates.
March 14, 2015 by Chris Bergin
The main engine – which was also tested at the Stennis Space Center – could throttle at a ratio of 4 to 1, ranging between 1,400 and 5,400 pounds thrust. All Morpheus engines were custom designed and built specifically for Morpheus and only cost $60,000 each.

 The specifications for the Falcon 1 upper stage are given here:

Falcon 1.

 It has a 360 kg dry mass and 3,385 kg propellant mass, and a 3,175 kilogram-force vacuum thrust and 327 s vacuum Isp using the Kestrel engine. This is an upper stage engine however with a long nozzle that can't be used at sea level. In the post "Altitude compensation attachments for standard rocket engines, and applications" I described various attachments to be made to existing engines to give them altitude compensation ability. 

 However, since pressure-fed engines are so comparatively low-cost they could be designed from the beginning to have aerospike nozzles. There is for instance the aerospike engine of Garvey Spacecraft. And Firefly Space Systems  will construct an aerospike nozzle by using numerous small engines arranged around a central spike.

 The question though is how much thrust could be developed with the Kestrels at sea level using altitude compensation. I'll estimate from the formula for Isp for a rocket engine:

The ideal exhaust velocity is given by

where k is the specific heat ratio, R* is the universal gas constant (8,314.4621 J/kmol-K in SI units, or 49,720 ft-lb/(slug-mol)-oR in U.S. units), Tc is the combustion temperature, Mis the average molecular weight of the exhaust gases, Pc is the combustion chamber pressure, and Pe is the pressure at the nozzle exit.
http://www.braeunig.us/space/propuls.htm#Isp


 The pressure factor at the end reduces the Isp at sea level. The specific heat ratio k is about 1.24 for kerolox. The Kestrel operates at a chamber pressure of 135 psi. Then the pressure factor is:
sqrt(1-(14.7/135)^(.24/1.24)) =  .591. So the Isp at sea level is 327*.591 = 193 s and the sea level thrust is .591*3,175 = 1,876 kilogram-force. 

 Note for this estimate to be valid you have to have altitude compensation so that the engine has optimal performance at sea level, i.e., you don't have the back-pressure loss that results from non-optimal expansion.

 Because of the 3,745 kg gross mass of the stage though, we need to reduce the propellant load to be loftable by the single Kestrel at the 1,876 kilogram-force sea level thrust. We'll reduce the propellant load by a factor of .45, so to .45*3,385 = 1,520 kg. We want also to maintain the relatively high mass ratio for the stage so we'll reduce the tank size. The tank mass is proportional to the propellant mass. Subtracting off the 52 kg mass of the Kestrel leaves us 308 kg in the stage dry mass. Multiplying this by .45 gives .45*308 = 138.6 kg. Adding on the 52 kg mass of the Kestrel gives a dry mass of 190 kg. 

 Other elements of a rocket stage such as the insulation, wiring, avionics do not scale linearly with propellant mass as does tank mass. However, since for pressure-fed stages the dry mass is so dominated by the tank mass this gives an approximate value of the stage mass when you scale down the stage size. 

 Moreover we can further reduce the dry mass by using composite propellant tanks. Microcosm, Inc. is making small-sized composite tanks that could be used for the purpose. NASA research has shown composite tanks can save 30% off the mass of aluminum-lithium tanks. Since Al-Li tanks save about 25% off the weight of standard aluminum tanks, this means composites can save about 50% off the weight of standard aluminum propellant tanks. 

 To estimate the mass this could save for this application, historically the propellant mass to tank mass ratio for kerolox for standard aluminum tanks is about 100 to 1. Note though this is for pump-fed engines that only need their stages at about 2 bar, about 30 psi. When the tank pressure is increased for pressure-fed engines the tank mass is correspondingly increased. The Falcon 1 upper stage tanks are kept at 200 psi pressure. So for our propellant mass of 1,520 kg, the tank mass assuming standard aluminum might be (1,520 kg/100)*(200 psi/30 psi) = 101 kg. Then a  reduction of 50% in the tank mass would cut 50 kg from the dry mass to bring it to 140 kg. However, we'll calculate here the payload using 190 kg dry mass number, as the dry mass here is approximate since some components of the stage won't actually scale proportionally with the stage size.

Cross-Feed Fueling for Multiple Cores.
 To increase payload we'll use cross-feed fueling. Note that cross-feed fueling is actually a well-understood technology, having been used on the Space Shuttle OMS engines:

Propellant Storage and Distribution.
"The propellant storage and distribution system consists of one fuel tank and one oxidizer tank in each pod. It also contains propellant feed lines, interconnect lines, isolation valves and crossfeed valves.
"The OMS propellant tanks of both pods enable the orbiter to reach a 1,000-foot- per-second velocity change with a 65,000-pound payload in the payload bay. An OMS pod crossfeed line allows the propellants in the pods to be used to operate either OMS engine."

 And it has also been used for decades for jet airliners:

Concorde.
Balancing by Fuel-Pumping.
The Concorde Tank-Schematic:

"1 + 2 + 3 + 4 are the Collector-Tanks, feeding the engines directly. Usually they feed there counterpart engines – but they can be cross-switched to feed more and/or other engines at the same time.
5 + 7 and 8 + 6 are the Main-Transfer Tanks, feeding the 4 Collector-Tanks. Initially 5 + 7 are active. If those are empty 6 + 8 take over (or must be activated from the Engineering Panel!).
5a + 7a are Auxiliary-Tanks (to 5 and 7).
9 + 10 are the Trim-Tanks for balancing forward
11 is the Trim-Tank for balancing afterward"

 To emulate rocket cross-feed fueling with the Schilling Launch Performance Calculator, note that during the parallel burn portion of the flight the propellant for the center core engines is coming from the side booster stage(s). This ensures that the center core will have a full propellant load during its solo burn portion of the flight, after the side booster(s) are jettisoned. 

 So the total amount of propellant burned during the parallel burn portion is that of the side booster(s) only. But the Schilling Calculator assumes the amount of propellant burned in the center core during the parallel burn is the same as the amount burned in each side booster. So enter in the Calculator for the booster propellant load a fraction of the actual propellant load of a core equal to the number of side boosters divided by the number of cores. So if you're using 2 cores with one used as a side booster enter in the Calculator booster column 1/2 the amount of the actual core propellant load. And if using 3 cores with 2 used as side boosters, enter in 2/3rds the actual core propellant load in the booster section. This will ensure the Calculator interprets the total propellant burned during the parallel burn portion is that of the actual side booster(s) only.

 But you also want the Calculator to take the amount of propellant burned during the center core's solo burn portion of the flight as that of a full propellant load. Since it is already taking it to have burned the same amount as what the side boosters have burned during the parallel burn portion, add this amount onto the actual propellant load of a core and enter this into a first stage column of the Calculator. For the other specifications for both booster(s) and center core such as Isp, dry mass, and thrust enter in the actual values.

 We'll calculate here the case for using two side booster of same size as the central core. Enter in the Schilling calculator the dry mass of 190 kg for the boosters and the first stage, which is the central core. For the thrust and Isp for the boosters and the first stage, enter in the vacuum Isp of 327 s and vacuum thrust of 31.1 kN in the calculator. However, to emulate cross-field fueling, for the propellant fields enter in (2/3)*1,520 kg = 1,013 kg in the booster section and 1,013 kg + 1,520 kg = 2,533 kg in the first stage section. Choose Cape Canaveral as the launch site and 28.5 degrees as the launch inclination to match the latitude for the launch site. For the "Restartable Upper Stage" select "No", otherwise the payload will be reduced. Then the calculator gives the result:

Mission Performance:
Launch Vehicle:  User-Defined Launch Vehicle
Launch Site:  Cape Canaveral / KSC
Destination Orbit:  185 x 185 km, 28 deg
Estimated Payload:  63 kg
95% Confidence Interval:  19 - 116 kg

"Payload" refers to complete payload system weight, including any necessary payload attachment fittings or multiple payload adapters
This is an estimate based on the best publicly-available engineering and performance data, and should not be used for detailed mission planning. Operational constraints may reduce performance or preclude this mission.


 We could get over 100 kg if we used three side cores. 

Methane for Improved Performance.
 We could also increase the payload using methane instead of kerosene as the fuel. For booster stages, methane has about the same performance as kerosene since the greater density for kerosene makes up for its lower Isp. But for upper stages methane offers better performance since it would give a lighter stage that had to be lofted by the lower stages. So if you wanted to use identical stages for simplicity and cost, methane would be the preferred fuel.

 There is also a key practical reason why methane might be preferred. NASA has developed the methane-fueled engine for the Morpheus rocket stage. With NASA's Technology Transfer program the technical info on the engine would also be shared at least for American companies. Then you would only have to pay the ca. $60,000 construction costs for the engine. 

 Considering that both the Kestrel and Morpheus engines are reusable this already low cost launcher can cut the cost to space considerably. It then could be used for DARPA's proposed reusable launchers discussed here: "NASA Technology Transfer for suborbital and air-launched orbital launchers." In an upcoming blog post I'll also show that using a single one of these cores, it can be used as either the reusable first stage booster, or the air-launched orbital stage for these DARPA programs.

Scale-up to Large Launchers. 
 Note this is a 5,130 gross mass launcher to launch a 63 kg payload. Pressure-fed stages scale up more easily than pump-fed ones since you don't have the complexity of creating a turbopump for the larger size engines. The Mercury spacecraft that carried John Glenn massed 1,300 kg. Using modern materials we could probably make a one-man capsule for 500 kg. Then we would only have to scale up our 3 core launcher by a factor of 8 to launch a one-man capsule to orbit. This would be a 41,000 kg gross mass launcher compared to the 120,000 kg gross mass Atlas rocket that launched John Glenn to space.

  Bob Clark






Tuesday, March 5, 2013

Budget Moon flights.

Copyright 2013 Robert Clark 

In the blog post SpaceX Dragon spacecraft for low cost trips to the Moon, I argued that manned flights to the Moon could be mounted for costs in the few hundred million dollars range. This is compared to the $100 billion cost estimated for the now defunct Constellation program.
 The key to the low cost was using the SpaceX Falcon Heavy booster, and using already existing components, such as the Centaur upper stages. But I wondered could we bring the cost down even further using even smaller upper stages? Perhaps to even a few 10's of millions of dollars??
 I'll use again a combination of hydrogen-fueled stages, two copies of the Ariane 4 third stage, version H-10-III this time. There are variations in the cited specifications for this stage in various sources:

Ariane 4.
http://www.b14643.de/Spacerockets_1/West_Europe/Ariane/Design/Ariane_2.htm 

Die Oberstufen H-8, H-10 und ESC-A.
http://www.bernd-leitenberger.de/h-10.shtml 


Ariane-44L H10-3.
http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_lau_det/ariane-44l_h10-3.htm 

Ariane H10-3.
http://www.astronautix.com/stages/arieh103.htm

ARIANE 4 SPECIFICATIONS.
http://www.braeunig.us/space/specs/ariane.htm 

 It may be some sources are including the weight of the Vehicle Equipment Bay (VEB), others not. The VEB carried the avionics and telemetry equipment for the Ariane 4. We may suppose these functions carried out by the crew capsule, and at lighter weight than that used on the Ariane 4, first launched in the mid-90's.
 I'll use the numbers on Braeunig's "ARIANE 4 SPECIFICATIONS" page. It gives the dry mass of the stage as 1,240 kg and the propellant mass as 11,860 kg. The HM-7B engine used on that stage has an Isp of ca. 445 s.

 We'll use again this table of Earth/Moon delta-V's:

Delta-V budget.
Earth–Moon space.



https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta-v_budget#Earth%E2%80%93Moon_space%E2%80%94high_thrust

 With aerobraking on the return to the Earth, the total round-trip delta-V is 8,650 m/s.  We'll  use the architecture that the landing stage is used to return all the way back to Earth, not just to link up with a stage waiting in lunar orbit. And just a single crew capsule will be used that carries the crew all the way from Earth to the Moon and back again, no separate command and lunar modules, as with Apollo. This is analogous to the Early Lunar Access proposal of the early 90's.
 Then we could bring a payload of 2.4 metric tons(mT) to the Moon and back, sufficient for a half-Dragon sized capsule:

445*9.81ln(1 + 11,860/(1,240 + 13,100 + 2,400)) + 445*9.81ln(1 + 11,860/(1,240 + 2,400)) = 8,660 m/s.

 Various weight saving techniques can be used to save further weight on the stages.  The propellant tanks are made of aluminum rather than the heavier steel of the Centaurs. But they can be made lighter in the rang of 15% to 25% by using the aluminum-lithium alloy used on the later versions of the shuttle external tank (ET). Further weight saving techniques would be to use the common bulkhead and "balloon tank", i.e., pressure-stabilized, design of the Centaurs. 
 The tanks can be made even lighter by using composites, perhaps by 30% over aluminum-lithium:

The Composite Cryotank Technologies and Demonstration Project.
http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20120002943_2012002501.pdf

 This means composites can save as much as 50% (!) off the weight of standard aluminum. Aside from tanks, composites can be used on the structural members to save weight. Composites could be used on the thrust structure, the intertank, the payload and interstage adapters, and the tank structural support members.
 A new composite structural technique is that of the isotruss:

Isotruss




 According to the manufacturer, it weighs only 1/12th as much as steel at the same strength:


 Boeing has already developed a 2.4 meter wide composite cryogenic tank: 

Boeing Develops Game Changing Composite Propellant Tank

 This would be sufficient for the H10-III stage. By next year they expect to have a 5.4 meter wide tank. This would allow a 20 mT standard sized Centaur to have the composite tanks. This size tank would also work for a scaled-up 40 mT Centaur-style stage. ULA has argued a stage this size following various weight saving techniques could get a 20 to 1 mass ratio. This would allow a stage that could make a manned round-trip lunar flight from LEO in a single stage.  

 ULA has discussed improving mass ratio as the best way to improve performance at the NewSpace 2012 conference. 



 From the graphs shown it is apparent propellant mass fraction, or mass ratio, is far and away the best way of increasing performance.  
Then to maximize the payload we can deliver to planetary targets, including on manned missions, it is important to implement such weight saving methods. For instance a single in-space stage for a lunar mission could be made reusable, thus cutting the cost of the in-space stage. 
 Conceivably just as important is that high mass ratio would also allow a single stage to orbit vehicle, SSTO. This has relevance to another ULA proposal of establishing propellant depots. It is known that a single stage capable of reaching LEO could also with orbital refueling make the round-trip from LEO to the lunar surface and back again as a single stage. So this one stage could make the entire trip from Earth to the Moon, with that one stop for refueling.
 The DC-X test VTVL test vehicle will be having its 20th anniversary this year. The event is to be celebrated by the participants in the program in August this year. It will also be marked by restoration of the DC-X for display in the New Mexico Space Museum.
 The DC-X itself was not intended to reach orbit. But interestingly the H-10-III stage, of similar size to the DC-X, may have this capability when lightweighted with composites. The single HM-7B engine it has though does not provide sufficient thrust for liftoff. You may need to add two to three additional engines. The increased thrust  however would add additional stress to the structure. It may require additional strengthening mass.   

COST. 
 For the lunar flight scenario, the total weight for the two H-10-III stages and the 2.4 mT capsule would be 28.4 mT. Using the estimated $2,000 per kilo cost for the Falcon Heavy launcher this would be a launch cost of $56.8 million. There is the cost also of the H-10-III stages. According to the "Ariane H10-3" Astronautix page, it's listed as $12 million. So the total cost of the launch would be $80.8 million.
 There is also however the cost of the capsule. We may suppose though the capsule is reusable so its cost per use might be only in the few million dollars range. Actually at a weight penalty of a few hundred pounds of propellant kept in reserve, which would subtract a proportionally smaller amount from the payload, the first H-100-III stage might be returnable to Earth to also be reusable. The second stage, used as the lander, could already be reusable since under the Early Lunar Access architecture it would also serve as the propulsive stage to return the capsule all the way to Earth. This would reduce the per use cost for the upper stages as well.
You would not be limited to using the Falcon Heavy, though this would be the lowest cost. The Delta IV Heavy with upgraded RS-68a engine has a 28 mT payload capacity to LEO, slightly less than the 28.4 mT needed at around a $300 million launch cost. However, the Delta IV Heavy is not expected to be man-rated anyway so you might as well launch the capsule on another rocket and link up with the propulsive stages in orbit.

ESA VERSION.
 This may be an architecture that could be implemented by the ESA. The Ariane 5 ME  is to have a 20% increase in payload to GTO to 12 mT. If the increase in payload to LEO is also 20% then that would bring the payload capacity to 24 mT. This would be enough to carry the propellant of the two H-10-III stages. Neither the current Ariane 5 nor the ME version will be man-rated however. We will need a separate man-rated rocket to carry the crew to orbit. This would have to lift the two H-10-III dry masses plus the capsule mass for 2*1.24 mT + 2.4 mT = 4.88 mT. I'll show in an accompanying blog post this is well within the capability of a vehicle made from a just a single stage of the Ariane 5 core with a second Vulcain 2 engine added. 
 The cost of the Ariane 5 is about $200 million. If the cost is also increased by 20% on the ME this would bring it to $240 million. And the cost for the manned launcher? I'm informed by a member of ESA that the estimated cost for a modified Ariane 5 core with a second Vulcain 2 engine would be ca. $60 milion. Plus the $24 million cost of the two upper stages brings the cost to $324 million.



  Bob Clark







Tuesday, February 5, 2013

SLS for Return to the Moon by the 50th Anniversary of Apollo 11, page 3: lightweighting the SLS core.

Copyright 2013 Robert Clark


 In the blog post SLS for Return to the Moon by the 50th Anniversary of Apollo 11, page 2: Orion + SEV design, I made the argument that the SLS Block I, scheduled to launch in 2017, should have significantly more payload than the 70 mT cited by NASA, which is no more than that of the smaller, less powerful Block 0 SLS. Recent news reports also indicated that a Freedom Of Information Act (FOIA) request to NASA on the SLS specifications was denied:

NASA MSFC Says That SLS Performance Specs Fall Under ITAR.
http://spaceref.com/news/viewnews.html?id=1697

Report: NASA in Huntsville won't release performance specifications for new rocket.
By Lee Roop | ****@al.com
on January 25, 2013 at 3:23 PM, updated January 25, 2013 at 3:51 PM
blog.al.com/breaking/2013/01/report_nasa_in_huntsville_wont.html

 Rand Simberg had suggested to me that the reason why NASA did not want to release the actual capabilities of the Block I SLS is that it would negate the need for even proceeding with the expensive Block II SLS. Thus it was an attempt, he argued, to maintain the "pork" of the expensive Block II development.

 However, I have been informed by those in the know that the Block I will indeed likely have a greater payload capacity than the 70 mT of the Block 0 version. However, a problem with providing such specifications for a new rocket is there is always weight growth beyond that which was originally expected.

 I had argued that scaling up a rocket should result in increased payload. But an additional factor to consider is that the new SLS core will not be scaled up in all dimensions. It is to be kept at the same width of the shuttle external tank (ET) while its length is stretched 33%. The same diameter is maintained to use the same tooling as that used to build the ET. However, stretching the length while maintaining the same diameter means additional strengthening members have to be attached to maintain its strength against bending and buckling loads. So it's not just a straight-forward matter of scaling up the mass of the core stage to estimate the payload capacity of the Block I. So I fully believe as the SLS core stage comes closer to completion then more accurate values for the payload capacity will be released.

 I was interested to note that, according to what I have been informed, that the current internal NASA estimates of the SLS payload to LEO would still allow my Orion+SEV lunar landing proposal, though not with as much leeway. Then to the end of increasing the payload and increasing the mass growth margins, I have some suggestions. Though having the propellant tanks being composite might be a bridge too far for a 2017 launch some of the structural strengthening members in the tanks might be. I was struck by this image while researching composite structures:

Isotruss

 It shows a new carbon composite structure called an isotruss. It just looks like it would be lightweight for the strength, doesn't it?

 SpaceX also uses composites to reduce weight in the interstage between the first and second stage of the Falcon 9. They could be used for the interstage for the SLS as well. An even more weight saving application of composites might be in the intertank though. This is the component of the external tank that supports the oxygen tank above the hydrogen tank. It's actually a heavy component of the ET, weighing more even than the oxygen tank.
  
 The tank mass of the ET and other rocket stages is discussed in the report:

Single Stage To Orbit Mass Budgets Derived From Propellant Density and Specific Impulse.
John C. Whitehead
32nd AIAA/ASME/SAE/ASEE Joint Propulsion ConferenceLake Buena Vista, FLJuly 1-3, 1996
http://www.osti.gov/bridge/servlets/purl/379977-2LwFyZ/webviewable/379977.pdf


 I consider this by the way to be the best aerospace engineering paper never published because of the importance of its conclusions. If the validity of its arguments had been recognized then, then we would already have by now routine manned space access.

 On page 8 in Fig. 6 is shown a diagram giving the mass of the intertank in the ET. It's mass is listed as 5.5 tons:



 For the tank stretched 33% in the SLS this might be 7.3 tons. Estimates put the weight savings in the structural mass in the 40% range by using composites

 A greater weight saving strategy would be to eliminate the intertank entirely. This is known as common bulkhead design. It also eliminates the weight of one of the bulkheads. This was used very successfully on the Saturn V cryogenic upper stages. Currently it is used on the Centaur upper stage, the Falcon 9 first stage, and the Ariane 5 core. The plan now is to use separated tanks with an interstage to maintain commonality with the current ET design. Still it might be advantageous to do a trade study on the increased payload in comparison to the increased cost of the common bulkhead design.

 Another possibility to save weight might be inflatable payload fairings. For such a large rocket, intended to carry such large payloads, the payload fairings would be quite heavy. There was a NASA RFI for innovative proposals on fairings and adapters, which has already expired. However, perhaps NASA can do a trade study of the weight saving possible under this method. Bigelow has been in the news for his inflatable habitats so this would not be so unusual for aerospace applications.

 Also, I want to argue again as I did in my Orion+SEV post for funding the ULA suggestions for lightweighting the Centaurs, to the extent of getting a 20 to 1(!) mass ratio. With a propellant size of 40 metric tons(mT) this would allow a round trip lunar landing mission with a single in-space stage. In fact such a lunar lander could be reusable, and it would be so small it could even be launched with a 70 mT sized launcher.

 It needs to be mentioned that many knowledgeable industry insiders do not believe the final Block II version of the SLS will ever fly. This is because of the long time frame, 20 years from now so over several presidential administrations, and because of its high cost. The SLS Block I scheduled for 2017 on the other hand very likely will.

 Wouldn't it be great for the public to learn as we more closely approach the completion date for this SLS in 2017 that it already will have the capacity for lunar landing flights and moreover we already have, by then, the in-space stages to accomplish it?

 NASA considering the very legitimate possibility that the Block II will not be funded should have as a contingency some plans of accomplishing the BEO explorations with the Block I SLS. This can be done with no new technology and not really very much extra cost, but just by using known methods of lightweighting the core and in-space stages.


    Bob Clark

Update, Sept. 28, 2013:

 Finally, NASA has acknowledged that the Block 1, first version of the SLS to launch in 2017 will have a 90+ mT payload capacity not the 70 mT always stated by NASA:

SLS Dual Use Upper Stage (DUUS).
http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20130013953_2013013757.pdf

 This is important since it means we will have the capability to do manned lunar landing missions by the 2017 first launch of the SLS:

SLS for Return to the Moon by the 50th Anniversary of Apollo 11, page 5: A 90+ metric ton first launch of the SLS.
http://exoscientist.blogspot.com/2013/09/sls-for-return-to-moon-by-50th.html

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