Showing posts with label Launch Vehicle Performance Calculator. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Launch Vehicle Performance Calculator. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

A SpaceX Heavy Lift Methane Rocket, Page 2.

Copyright 2014 Robert Clark

 In the blog post A SpaceX Heavy Lift Methane Rocket I discussed some possibilities for a heavy lift rocket using SpaceX's planned methane engine, the Raptor. Those calculations were based on the initial released values for its thrust of 660,000 lbs, 300,000 kilograms-force. However, recently SpaceX has said the Raptor may have a thrust of 1,800,000 lbs in vacuum, 1,600,000 lbs at sea level. So I'll give some revised estimates for its payload. 

 As before I suggest using the same tooling for the core stage as that used for the SLS core to save on development costs. Corresponding to the new higher thrust of the Raptor I'll use the full tank size of the SLS core, which would hold 1,000 metric tons (MT) of hydrogen-lox propellant. Since methane-lox is 2.4 times as dense as hydrogen-lox, the SpaceX methane-lox core will hold 2,400 mT of propellant. The relative densities of methane-lox compared to hydrogen-lox are given in Table 1 of this report:

Alternate Propellants for SSTO Launchers.
Dr. Bruce Dunn
Adapted from a Presentation at:
Space Access 96
Phoenix Arizona
April 25 - 27, 1996

 In regards to the specifications of the methane rocket engine it should be noted the high vacuum Isp of 380 s  cited really would only be expected of a vacuum optimized nozzle. Such engines can not be operated at sea level. However, in an upcoming blog post I'll discuss some altitude compensation methods that will allow the engine to have this vacuum optimized Isp while still being able to operate at sea level. So I'll assume both the first stage and upper stage engines have the vacuum Isp of 380 s.

 As before I'll take the number of engines for the core as five and the propellant-to-dry mass ratio as 20 to 1. For the upper stage I'll take the propellant size as approx. 1/5th that of the core stage, at 500,000 kg with the same mass ratio, and use a single Raptor for the upper stage.

SSTO Case.
 We'll use again Dr. John Schilling's Launch Vehicle Performance Calculator. Input the thrust as the value of the vacuum thrust in kilonewtons of 5 Raptors as 5*8200 kN = 41,000 kN, and the Isp as the vacuum Isp of 380 s. Input the propellant mass as 2,400,000 kg and the dry mass as 1/20th of this at 120,000 kg. For the "Default Propellant Residuals?" option select "Yes", and for the "Restartable Upper Stage?" option select "No". Selecting "Yes" for this last option would reduce the calculated payload.

 Use the default altitude of 185 km. Select Cape Canaveral as the launch site with an orbital inclination of 28.5 degrees to match the latitude of the launch site. Then the Calculator gives the result:

Mission Performance:
Launch Vehicle:  User-Defined Launch Vehicle
Launch Site:  Cape Canaveral / KSC
Destination Orbit:  185 x 185 km, 28 deg
Estimated Payload:  110395 kg
95% Confidence Interval:  75079 - 152433 kg

 So this larger version could give 110,000 kg payload as an SSTO.

Two Stage Case
For the two stage case, in the column for the 2nd stage, input the propellant mass as 500,000 kg and the dry mass as 25,000 kg. Input the thrust as the vacuum thrust of 8,200 kN, and the Isp as the vacuum Isp of 380 s. Then the calculator gives the result:

Mission Performance:
Launch Vehicle:  User-Defined Launch Vehicle
Launch Site:  Cape Canaveral / KSC
Destination Orbit:  185 x 185 km, 28 deg
Estimated Payload:  196089 kg
95% Confidence Interval:  162727 - 236334 kg

  Close to 200 metric tons payload to LEO. Actually since the mass ratio of stages improve as you scale them up, quite likely the mass ratio will be better than just ca. 20 to 1, perhaps in the range of 25 to 30 to 1. This would then improve our payload to above 200 metric tons.

Cross-Feed Fueling for Multiple Cores.
 We'll just look at the 3 core case here. As described in the A SpaceX Heavy Lift Methane Rocket post, we emulate cross-feed fueling in the Schilling calculator by inputting for the two side boosters 2/3rds the actual  propellant mass, and also increase the first stage propellant mass by an additional 2/3rds. The rest of the specifications, dry mass, thrust, Isp remain the same. 

 So enter 2 as the number of side boosters. Then in the column for the boosters, input 1,600,000 kg for the propellant mass and 120,000 kg for the dry mass of the boosters. Enter the actual vacuum thrust of 41,000 kN and Isp as 380 s. Then the calculator gives the result:

Mission Performance:
Launch Vehicle:  User-Defined Launch Vehicle
Launch Site:  Cape Canaveral / KSC
Destination Orbit:  185 x 185 km, 28 deg
Estimated Payload:  536113 kg
95% Confidence Interval:  449806 - 639526 kg
 Over 500 metric tons of payload! This rocket however would be truly massive at 3 times the mass of the Saturn V. This would likely require a new,expensive launch pad to handle a rocket this size.


  Bob Clark

UPDATE, October 25, 2014:

 Some methods of accomplishing the altitude compensation mentioned are discussed here:

Altitude compensation attachments for standard rocket engines, and applications.
http://exoscientist.blogspot.com/2014/10/altitude-compensation-attachments-for.html

Monday, August 26, 2013

The Coming SSTO's: Page 2.

Copyright 2013 Robert Clark

 In the blog post, The Coming SSTO's I calculated some delta v's that suggested we already have the capability to do SSTO's with significant payload. However, here I'll provide some more accurate estimates by using Dr. John Schilling's Launch Vehicle Performance Calculator page. I'll go back to the Atlas rocket SLV-3 Atlas / Agena B. The specifications are given here:

SLV-3 Atlas / Agena B.
Family: Atlas. Country: USA. Status: Hardware. Department of
Defence Designation: SLV-3.
Standardized Atlas booster with Agena B upper stage.
Specifications
Payload: 600 kg. to a: 19,500 x 103,000 km orbit at 77.5 deg
inclination trajectory.
Stage Number: 0. 1 x Atlas MA-3 Gross Mass: 3,174 kg. Empty Mass:
3,174 kg. Thrust (vac): 167,740 kgf. Isp: 290 sec. Burn time: 120 sec.
Isp(sl): 256 sec. Diameter: 4.9 m. Span: 4.9 m. Length: 0.0 m.
Propellants: Lox/Kerosene No Engines: 2. LR-89-5
Stage Number: 1. 1 x Atlas Agena SLV-3 Gross Mass: 117,026 kg.
Empty Mass: 2,326 kg.
 Thrust (vac): 39,400 kgf. Isp: 316 sec. Burn
time: 265 sec. Isp(sl): 220 sec. Diameter: 3.1 m. Span: 4.9 m. Length:
20.7 m. Propellants: Lox/Kerosene No Engines: 1. LR-105-5
Stage Number: 2. 1 x Agena B Gross Mass: 7,167 kg. Empty Mass: 867
kg. Thrust (vac): 7,257 kgf. Isp: 285 sec. Burn time: 240 sec. Isp(sl): 0
sec. Diameter: 1.5 m. Span: 1.5 m. Length: 7.1 m. Propellants: Nitric
acid/UDMH No Engines: 1. Bell 8081

http://www.friends-partners.org/partners/mwade/lvs/slvgenab.htm

 We see stage 1 called the sustainer stage has nearly a 50 to 1 mass ratio. However, the Atlas had an unusual "stage and a half" structure where engines needed to lift off from the pad were jettisoned later on in the flight, leaving only a smaller, lower thrust engine behind. This engine which is the one used in stage 1, did not have enough thrust to lift off from the pad. So as in The Coming SSTO's post,  I'll replace it with the NK-33 engine which has now flown successfully on the Orbital Sciences Antares. 
 The propellant load remains 114,700 kg as in the original Atlas but the dry mass increases to 3,086 because of the heavier engine. The vacuum Isp is 331 s for the NK-33, and the vacuum thrust is 1,638 kN. Now input these numbers into Schilling's calculator. Select "No" for the "Restartable Upper Stage?" option and Cape Canaveral for the launch site. For the orbital inclination choose 28.5 degrees to match the latitude of Cape Canaveral. Then the Calculator gives these results:

====================================================
Mission Performance:
Launch Vehicle:   User-Defined Launch Vehicle
Launch Site:   Cape Canaveral / KSC
Destination Orbit:  185 x 185 km, 28 deg
Estimated Payload:   4113 kg
95% Confidence Interval: 2860 - 5625 kg

====================================================

 This value of 4,113 kg is remarkable in being close to that of the payload capability of the full Antares at 5,000 kg, a rocket of twice the gross mass, using two stages and two of the NK-33 engines on the first stage.
 Based on this, this SSTO version could be significantly cheaper than the current Antares. Plus in being only liquid fueled, it could be used as a manned launcher. Note that Orbital already has the Cygnus capsule which with the addition of a heat shield and life support could be a manned capsule.

 The mass ratio of 50 to 1 for the original Atlas is so high it would be interesting to calculate the payload capacity if we used instead the lower Isp Merlin 1D engine. By the SpaceX page, nine Merlin 1D's have total vacuum thrust of 6,672 kN. So one is 741 kN. We will need two to lift off, at 1,482 kN vacuum thrust. The two Merlin 1D's together weigh about 330 kg less than the NK-33 case, so subtract that much from the dry mass of the NK-33 case. However, the Isp is also reduced to 311 s Isp for the Merlin:
 Then Schilling's calculator gives:

====================================================

Mission Performance:
Launch Vehicle:   User-Defined Launch Vehicle
Launch Site:   Cape Canaveral / KSC
Destination Orbit:  185 x 185 km, 28 deg
Estimated Payload:   3025 kg
95% Confidence Interval: 1952 - 4331 kg
====================================================

 It is the quite high mass ratio that leads to these rather high payload capabilities.

 SpaceX might not be inclined to support such an experiment, as they are deeply invested in keeping the Falcon 9 first stage and Merlin 1D engines. However, Orbital Sciences farms out its construction of the Antares first stage to a company in the Ukraine.  So they may be inclined to try a new stage that would at the same time prove to be a revolutionary step of creating an operational SSTO.                                                                                            

   Bob Clark

Saturday, August 4, 2012

The Coming SSTO's: Falcon 9 v1.1 first stage as SSTO.

Copyright 2012 Robert Clark 



  I've been arguing that SSTO's are actually easy because how to achieve 
them is perfectly obvious: use the most weight optimized stages and 
most Isp efficient engines at the same time, i.e., optimize both 
components of the rocket equation. But I've recently found it's even 
easier than that! It turns out you don't even need the engines to be 
of particularly high efficiency. 
SpaceX is moving rapidly towards testing its Grasshopper scaled-down 
version of a reusable Falcon 9 first stage: 

Reusable rocket prototype almost ready for first liftoff. 
BY STEPHEN CLARK 
SPACEFLIGHT NOW 
Posted: July 9, 2012 
http://www.spaceflightnow.com/news/n1207/10grasshopper/ 

SpaceX deserves kudos for achieving a highly weight optimized Falcon 9 
first stage at a 20 to 1 mass ratio. However, the Merlin 1C engine has 
an Isp no better than the engines we had in the early sixties at 304 
s, and the Merlin 1D is only slightly better on the Isp scale at 311 s. 
This is well below the highest efficiency kerosene engines (Russian) 
we have now whose Isp's are in the 330's. So I thought that closed 
the door on the Falcon 9 first stage being SSTO. 

However, I was surprised when I did the calculation that because of 
the Merlin 1D's lower weight, the Falcon 9 first stage could indeed be 
SSTO. For the calculation we'll need the F9 dry mass and propellant 
mass. I'll use the Falcon 9 specifications estimated by GW Johnson, a 
former rocket engineer, now math professor: 

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 14, 2011 
Reusability in Launch Rockets. 
http://exrocketman.blogspot.com/2011/12/reusability-in-launch-rockets.html

The first stage propellant load is given as 553,000 lbs, 250,000 kg, 
and the dry weight as 30,000 lbs, 13,600 kg. 

I'll actually calculate the payload for the first stage of the new version of 
the Falcon 9, version 1.1. The Falcon Heavy will use this version's first stage 
for its core stage and side boosters. SpaceX expects the Falcon 9 v1.1 
to be ready by the end of the year. 

Elon Musk has said version 1.1 will be about 50% longer: 

Q&A with SpaceX founder and chief designer Elon Musk. 
BY STEPHEN CLARK 
SPACEFLIGHT NOW 
Posted: May 18, 2012 
http://www.spaceflightnow.com/falcon9/003/120518musk/ 

I'll assume this is coming from 50% larger tanks. This puts the 
propellant load now at 375,000 kg. Interestingly SpaceX says the side 
boosters on the Falcon Heavy will have a 30 to 1 mass ratio. This 
improvement is probably coming from the fact it is using the lighter 
Merlin 1D engines, and because scaling up a rocket actually improves 
your mass ratio, and also not having to support the weight of an upper 
stage and heavy payload means it can be made lighter. 

So I'll assume for this SSTO version of the Falcon 9 v1.1 the mass 
ratio is 30 to 1, which makes the dry mass 13 mT. 

To estimate the payload I'll use the payload estimation program of 
Dr. John Schilling:

Launch Vehicle Performance Calculator. 
http://www.silverbirdastronautics.com/LVperform.html 

It actually gives a range of likely values of the payload. But I've found 
the midpoint of the range it specifies is a reasonably accurate estimate 
to the actual payload for known rockets. 

Input the vacuum values for the thrust in kilonewtons and Isp in 
seconds. The program takes into account the sea level loss. SpaceX 
gives the Merlin 1D vacuum thrust as 161,000 lbs and vacuum Isp 
as 311 s: 

FALCON 9 OVERVIEW. 
http://www.spacex.com/falcon9.php 

For the 9 Merlins this is a thrust of 9*161,000lb*4.46N/lb = 6,460 
kN. Use the default altitude of 185 km and select the Cape Canaveral 
launch site, with a 28.5 degree orbital inclination to match the 
Cape's latitude. 

Input the dry mass of 13,000 kg and propellant mass of 375,000 kg. 
The other options I selected are indicated here:



Then it gives an estimated 7,564 kg payload mass:

===================================== 
Launch Vehicle: User-Defined Launch Vehicle 
Launch Site: Cape Canaveral / KSC 
Destination Orbit: 185 x 185 km, 28 deg 
Estimated Payload: 7564 kg 
95% Confidence Interval: 3766 - 12191 kg 
=====================================

This may be enough to launch the Dragon capsule, depending on the mass 
of the Launch Abort System(LAS). 


Bob Clark

UPDATE, Sept. 26, 2013:

 See more accurate calculations using Dr. John Schillings Launch Performance Calculator here:

The Coming SSTO's: Page 2.
http://exoscientist.blogspot.com/2013/08/the-coming-sstos-page-2.html


UPDATE, August 26, 2014:

 This blog post actually used the estimated specifications for the Falcon Heavy side boosters, as this was supposed to have an even better mass efficiency than the core stage. However, Elon Musk gave a speech where he gave some values for the Falcon 9 v1.1 first stage that allow us to estimate the propellant and dry masses for the stage. Then we can calculate the payload capability of a F9 v1.1 core stage SSTO itself. I estimate it as ca. 5,000 kg:

The Coming SSTO's: Falcon 9 v1.1 first stage as SSTO, Page 2.
http://exoscientist.blogspot.com/2013/11/the-coming-sstos-falcon-9-v11-first.html

Could Blue Origin develop a lander for Artemis III?

Copyright 2025 Robert Clark SpaceX is coming under increasing criticism for its delay in developing the Starship lunar lander: U.S. Is Losin...