The Morpheus lunar lander as a manned lander for the Moon.

 Copyright 2014 Robert Clark

 Nice article here on the Morpheus lunar lander:

Project Morpheus Concludes Successful Flight Test Campaign With Spectacular Night Launch.
By Mike Killian
http://www.americaspace.com/?p=61298&cpage=1

The project leader notes it could be scaled up to be a manned lander. Based on specifications of the lander I estimate it would need to be scaled up by a factor of three to form a descent stage while using the original sized version for the ascent stage. The delta-V from low lunar orbit to the lunar surface is 1,870 m/s each way:

Delta-V Budget.
Earth-Moon space.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta-v_budget#Earth.E2.80.93Moon_space

 According to the given specifications, the Isp of the Morpheus engine is 321 s and the propellant load is 2.9 mT and dry mass, 1.1 mT. So with a 2 mT lunar capsule mass, the ascent stage consisting of a single Morpheus would have delta-v of:

321*9.81ln(1 + 2.9/(1.1 + 2)) = 2,080 m/s.

 The descent stage consisting of the Morpheus scaled up three times would have a 8.7 mT propellant load and 3.3 mT dry  mass. Carrying the 4 mT of the ascent stage and the 2 mT capsule, the descent stage would have delta-v of:

 321*9.81ln(1 + 8.7/(3.3 + 4 +2)) = 2,080 m/s.

  Another nice article describes the origin of the idea of the Morpheus and its innovative, low cost approach:

A father-son chat leads to first-of-its-kind NASA spacecraft.
By Thom Patterson, CNN
updated 8:00 AM EDT, Mon May 19, 2014 |
http://www.cnn.com/2014/05/18/tech/big-idea-morpheus-lander/

 Based on a $14 million development cost for two prototypes, one scaled up by a factor of three might cost $21 million. So $28 million for both stages. Actually by the Wikipedia page on Project Morpheus, the parts to build the Morpheus version 1.5B were only $750,000. So construction of a single Morpheus was probably well less than $7 million, and the cost for one three-times scaled up one well less than $21 million.

  Instead of scaling up the Morpheus, we could also combine three of the original size to form the descent stage, with the same development cost of $21 million. This would have an advantage of a quicker time to producing a flight capable prototype. Another problem with the scaled up version of the descent stage is that based on the 12 foot height of the original version I estimate an 18 foot height of the descent stage. That would be a high climb down for the astronauts. Constructing the descent stage of three copies of the original-sized Morpheus though would allow you to connect them together on a single level so the climb down would still be 12 feet.

  In any case we see again, just as with the Masten Xeus lander, a manned lunar lander can be made for 10′s of millions of dollars rather than the $10 billion of the Altair lunar lander.

      Bob Clark 

Free your mind, and the rest will follow.

Copyright 2013 Robert Clark 

The story has been told that when the Native Americans first saw the ships of the Europeans they could not grasp what they were seeing because it was so outside their experience. I've always been dubious of that story. But a recent study suggests something of this nature can happen:

Science confirms: Politics wrecks your ability to do math.
By Chris Mooney

Everybody knows that our political views can sometimes get in the way of thinking clearly. But perhaps we don’t realize how bad the problem actually is. According to a new psychology paper, our political passions can even undermine our very basic reasoning skills. More specifically, the study finds that people who are otherwise very good at math may totally flunk a problem that they would otherwise probably be able to solve, simply because giving the right answer goes against their political beliefs.

http://grist.org/politics/science-confirms-politics-wrecks-your-ability-to-do-math/

 So preconceived notions can affect your ability to reason effectively, even among the smartest among us. I'm reminded also of a brain puzzler stated on the "All in the Family" TV show during the '70s. Gloria presented to the family the following:

 A father driving his young son were in an accident and the father was killed, while the son was injured but survived. When the child was brought to the hospital, the surgeon said, "I can't operate on this boy. He's my son."

 That was a puzzler the rest of the family on the show couldn't solve then and neither could I when I first saw the episode back in the '70s. The answer of course is that the surgeon was the boy's mother. 
 With the advance of women in medicine now with most med school graduates being women that probably would not be such a great puzzle to solve now as then. But it indicates how your preconceived ideas can limit your ability to solve really simple problems.
  
 Something like this is currently occurring at NASA. The Constellation program that would have returned us to the Moon has been cancelled due to high cost. However, many space advocates in the public and in Congress would prefer us to return to the Moon rather than the asteroid mission NASA is embarking on. No doubt because of these calls to return to the Moon, NASA released a study on a return to the Moon without Constellation:

Dual SLS launch campaign required for NASA’s Lunar return.
August 21, 2013 by Chris Bergin
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2013/08/dual-sls-required-nasas-lunar-landing-option/

 I was surprised to read that the study assumed an Altair-sized lander at the ca. 45 mT range. But the Altair's size was a big reason driving Constellation's large size and therefore great expense. And in fact by using two SLS launches the mission size in this study turns out to be even larger than Constellation. 

 It was as if the study authors had never heard of the Apollo lander that was only one-third the size of Altair. The misperception that a lunar lander has to be as large as the Altair as well as being built from scratch rather than using existing propulsive stages and crew capsules drives the false conclusion that an additional $10 billion expense would be needed for such a lander, and therefore a lunar return is unaffordable. 

  A further misperception is what is the mass that could be transported to LEO by the SLS. The Block 0 version of the SLS was supposed to use three SSME's on the core and use the standard 4-segment SRB's used on the shuttle. This would have a 70 mT payload capacity to LEO.

 However, NASA decided to bypass the Block 0 and go directly to the Block 1. This would stretch the core tank by a third and use a fourth SSME. It would also use a fifth-segment on the SRB's. So the size and thrust of the core would be increased by 33% and the size and thrust of the SRB by 25%.

 Despite these increases in both size and thrust, NASA was still quoting 70 mT capacity for the Block 1 SLS. Logically the payload should have been increased but NASA continued to quote 70 mT. Finally, NASA did release a report that acknowledged the payload to LEO would be 90+ mT:

SLS Dual Use Upper Stage (DUUS).
http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20130013953_2013013757.pdf


  This is important because at 90+ mT it is much easier to do a manned lunar landing mission using a single launch of the SLS, assuming you use a lander at the Apollo scale not the Altair scale. Indeed it would be possible at the first launch of the SLS in 2017.

 Then it was these preconceived notions that prevented NASA from seeing that we can in fact return to the Moon as early as 2017, and not even at significantly greater expense than that already being spent on the SLS and Orion capsule.

  Another mental block is operating in regards to how much such BEO missions should cost. NASA's commercial space program has been a great success in producing both launchers and spacecraft at as much as a 90%(!) savings over what NASA would normally have to pay for them. If any other federal agency had managed to reduce costs for normally multi-billion dollar programs to only a few hundred million dollars this would be hailed to the skies as a remarkable success in reducing costs to the American tax payer. Yet NASA was regarding it as if it were something they were only allowed to talk about in hushed tones.

 Finally, NASA has released a report detailing the savings possible under the commercial space approach:

The Commercial Leverage Model and Public/Private Partnerships.
Daniel J. Rasky
Director, Emerging Commercial Space Office
NASA Ames Research Center
Founder & Director, Space Portal
NASA Research Park
Moffett Field, CA 9403
September 11, 2013
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/47645641/AIAA_2013.pptx 

 Imagine then these cost savings applied also to BEO missions to the Moon or asteroids. This would make these missions much more fiscally feasible. It was NASA not officially acknowledging such cost savings that made it so that they could not study possibilities for returning to the Moon in a low cost fashion.

 For return to the Moon missions conducted by NASA, NASA may initially choose to use the, still expensive, SLS launcher. However, just as NASA has realized commercial space can make flights to the ISS much more cheaply than the shuttle, so also can commercial space make flights to the Moon much more cheaply.

 Indeed, by going small, going commercial, and using preexisting propulsive stages and crew modules, crewed and cargo flights to the Moon can be made for comparable costs to what we are paying the Russians to send a crew of three to the ISS.  

 The conclusion you draw is that a Moon base can be sustained on the Moon for what we are currently paying to sustain the ISS.

 Just free your mind, and the rest will follow.

   Bob Clark

SLS for Return to the Moon by the 50th Anniversary of Apollo 11, page 5: A 90+ metric ton first launch of the SLS.

Copyright 2013 Robert Clark

 Finally someone at NASA acknowledges that the Block 1, first version of the SLS to launch in 2017 will have a 90+ mT payload capacity not the 70 mT always cited by NASA:

SLS Dual Use Upper Stage (DUUS).
http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20130013953_2013013757.pdf

 This is important since it means we will have the capability to do manned lunar landing missions by the 2017 first launch of the SLS.

 As discussed in the blog post SLS for Return to the Moon by the 50th Anniversary of Apollo 11, page 2: Orion + SEV design, a 90+ metric ton launcher means we can even use the Orion as the crew capsule. This is important for political reasons since the great expense spent on it means there would be a great desire among its supporters to see it be used. 

 There also is a preference at NASA for the departure stages from the lunar surface and from lunar orbit to use hypergolics, which have the surety of igniting on contact. Then another advantage of a 90+ mT SLS is that the heavier hypergolics can be used for these stages rather than the lightweight hydrogen-fueled stages I suggested in that blog post. In an upcoming post I'll show using existing hypergolic stages how we can get a lunar landing mission at less than 90 mT to LEO.

  For any of these methods it is important to use currently existing stages rather than developing them from scratch. A big reason that NASA ruled out a return to the Moon was because of the assumption that it required the development of new Altair-sized lander at a $10 billion development cost. But the need for a 45 mT Altair-sized lander is provably false as shown by the Apollo lander at one-third the size. And simply adapting already existing stages reduces the cost to a fraction of that needed for an Altair.

 So NASA is making expensive policy decisions such that we can't return to the Moon based on provably wrong assumptions. One is that the Block 1 would only have a 70 mT payload capability and so would require an expensive upper stage to increase the payload to do lunar missions, and another is that a lunar lander would require an additional $10 billion development.

 In fact, once you recognize the, obvious, fact that a lunar mission does not require an Altair-sized lander then so many possibilities become apparent. We did not have the great variety of existing launchers back in the Apollo days that we have now. If you allow your lander to be at or smaller than the Apollo lander then there are a variety of launchers that could be used for lunar missions, not just the SLS. And since they are already existing, or will be soon such as the Falcon Heavy, there would be no huge, multi-billion dollar development cost to use them. 

 So likewise also is the case for the in-space stages needed. They are already currently existing and would require relatively minor adaptations to be used for a lunar lander, for example.

 Indeed we could do manned lunar missions for what NASA is currently paying the Russians to send a crew of 3 to the ISS. The implications of that are jarring: we could have regular manned flights to the Moon for the same amount as what we are currently paying to send regular manned flights to the ISS.  And since the cargo flights to the Moon would be similarly low cost and using Bigelow style lightweight habs would allow a habitation module to be sent to the Moon on a single flight, we could have a manned lunar base for the same amount as what we are paying to sustain the ISS.

 All this comes from simply the mental reset that a lunar mission does not require the $10 billion Altair.

 Free your mind, the rest will follow.

    Bob Clark

Note: thanks to M. Moleman for discussing the NASA report "SLS Dual Use Upper Stage (DUUS)" on his blog.

Budget Moon Flights: Ariane 5 as SLS upper stage.

Copyright 2013 Robert Clark

Delta IV Heavy Orion Circumlunar Test Flight.

I’m fairly sure looking at the capabilities of the Delta IV Heavy with the upgraded RS-68a engine, about 28 metric tons to LEO, that it could launch the Orion on that 2014 test launch on an actual circumlunar flight, not just to 3,600 miles out as currently planned. A circumlunar flight would result in a much more capable test of the Orion.

The Orion test is planned to only carry a dummy service module, so that will be much lighter. The flight is planned though to carry the launch abort system (LAS) so that detracts from the weight that can be launched.

Without the LAS the DIVH could definitely send the Orion on a circumlunar flight. With the LAS, it makes it a little more difficult to estimate since it is jettisoned before reaching orbit.

This makes the use of the SLS for that unmanned circumlunar test flight in 2017 even more dubious, since the DIVH could do that, even if removing the LAS is required. That is another reason why I argue NASA should be aiming for an actual unmanned lunar landing test with that 2017 SLS flight.

Low Cost Lunar Lander and Crew Module.
ULA has done studies on adapting the Centaur upper stage as a lunar lander stage so you would not need a huge, and hugely expensive, Altair lander. We already even have a crew module that could be used for such a lander in NASA’s SEV, which can be ready by 2017 for test flights:

Inside NASA’s New Spaceship for Asteroid Missions | Space.com.
by Clara Moskowitz, SPACE.com Assistant Managing Editor
Date: 12 November 2012 Time: 02:30 PM ET

If the current schedule holds, NASA could test-drive a version of the SEV at the International Space Station in 2017. http://www.space.com/18443-nasa-asteroid-spacecraft-sev.html

Ariane 5 Core as SLS Upper Stage.
NASA is considering a version of the upper stage to be used with the Block II version of the SLS that uses RL-10 engines instead of the J-2X:

SLS prepares for PDR – Evolution eyes Dual-Use Upper Stage.
June 1, 2013 by Chris Bergin
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2013/06/sls-pdr-evolved-rocket-dual-upper-stage/

This is expected to save on costs.

NASA also wants to encourage European participation in the proposed asteroid retrieval mission:

NASA Pitches Asteroid Capture To International Partners.
By Frank Morring, Jr.
Source: Aerospace Daily & Defense Report
June 28, 2013
http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/asd_06_28_2013_p01-01-592208.xml

Then a way to save further on development costs and to get European involvement would be to use the Ariane 5 core as the upper stage. It’s of common-bulkhead design to save mass. I recently learned it also uses the pressure-stabilized, “balloon tank”, method a la the Centaur to further save on tank mass.

The ESA also believes its Vulcain II engine can be made air-startable since this was planned for the Liberty rocket. The Vulcain uses a rather short nozzle since it is meant for ground launch, giving it a 432 s Isp. But simply giving it a nozzle extension would give it the ca. 462 s ISP of the RL-10.

Another key advantage is that because little additional development would be needed it might even be ready by the 2017 first launch of the SLS. Then this first 2017 launch of what was only to be a 70 mT interim version could have the 100+ mT capability of the later versions of the SLS. Such a version would clearly have the capability to do manned lunar lander missions.

You could also give this stage the RL-10 engines, instead of the Vulcain. The Vulcain weighs about 1,800 kg. Four RL-10′s would weigh 1,200 kg. So this would save 600 kg off the stage dry mass.

The NasaSpaceFlight.com article mentions the advantage of having different diameters for the hydrogen and oxygen tanks to maintain commonality with tooling of existing stages, and that is the reason for not having both tanks the same diameter. That would not be a problem of course with using the Ariane 5 core at a common 5.4 meter diamter. And someone noted on the Nasaspaceflight forum thread on this topic that for a uniform 8.4 m diameter, NASA could just use the same tooling for both that is used for the 8.4 meter SLS core stage tank.

For any of these possibilities it would be very good if NASA could use the composite tanks Boeing is investigating. Aerospace engineer Jon Goff on his blog noted ULA estimated their ACES proposed upgrade of the Centaur could get a 20 to 1 mass ratio by switching to aluminum-lithium for the tanks. And according to Boeing, an additional 40% can be saved off the Al-Li tank mass by using composites, resulting in an even larger mass ratio than 20 to 1:


NASA Sees Potential In Composite Cryotank.
By Frank Morring, Jr. morring@aviationweek.com
Source: AWIN First
July 01, 2013
http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/awx_07_01_2013_p0-592975.xml


Scaling up your stage mass, such as to the DUUS size, is also known to be able to improve your mass ratio. Imagine then all these mass ratio improving factors being applied. How high could the mass ratio get, perhaps to the 25 to 1, or even 30 to 1 range???

Imagine what you could do with a hydrolox stage with an ISP as high as ca. 462 s with a mass ratio as high as 30 to 1. (*)

Bob Clark


(*) By rocket equation, the delta-v is:  462*9.81ln(30) = 15,400 m/s.


Update, Sept. 28, 2013:

 Finally, NASA has acknowledged that the Block 1, first version of the SLS to launch in 2017 will have a 90+ mT payload capacity not the 70 mT always stated by NASA:

SLS Dual Use Upper Stage (DUUS).
http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20130013953_2013013757.pdf

 This is important since it means we will have the capability to do manned lunar landing missions by the 2017 first launch of the SLS:

SLS for Return to the Moon by the 50th Anniversary of Apollo 11, page 5: A 90+ metric ton first launch of the SLS.
http://exoscientist.blogspot.com/2013/09/sls-for-return-to-moon-by-50th.html