Copyright 2024 Robert Clark
Elon Musk presented an update on the plans for the Starship post the third Starship test flight:
Elon Musk Starship Presentation: IFT-4 Master Plan, Starship V2 & V3, Raptor V3, Mars, IFT-3 & More.
About 31 minutes in Elon suggests the current version V1 would be capable of 40 to 50 tons to orbit. This is bad because SpaceX sold NASA on the idea the Starship HLS could serve as an Artemis lander based on 150 tons to orbit reusable and “10ish” refueling flights. If the capability is max 50 tons, then it would take “30ish” refueling flights.
If they intend to use version V2 then this is bad because it would require further qualification flights for the larger version and more importantly further qualification of the more powerful Raptor 3 engine needed.
This last is doubly bad because I’d be willing to bet dollars to donuts that they never informed NASA that the current version couldn’t do it and further development would be required for the larger version.
SpaceX needs a true Chief Engineer. Elon once said that early on when there were still doubts about its viability, they tried to recruit a Chief Engineer for SpaceX but no one good was willing to come. So Elon designated himself Chief Engineer. It is not a role Elon is well suited for. A good Chief Engineer should be scrupulously forthright. He would not refer to the little 5 or 10 second static burns SpaceX does for the SuperHeavy or Starship as "full duration".
A true Chief Engineer would be aware that "full duration" in the industry is short for "full mission duration". These static fires in the industry are conducted at the full length and the full thrust of an actual flight and are meant to give confidence to potential customers that the engines can perform as expected for the promised capabilities of the launchers.
However, SpaceX in using the term "full duration" for these little few-second burns, doesn't even tell the public, or its major customer NASA for which they have a billion-dollar contract, if these little burns are even conducted at full thrust.
This has had majorly negative consequences. The FAA had great concerns in the Raptor reliability after the first test flight. In the "corrective actions" they required of SpaceX prior to a second Starship test flight, at the top of the list was correcting the tendency of the Raptor of leaking fuel and catching on fire while in flight.
I have argued multiple, independent lines of evidence suggest SpaceX intentionally reduced the throttle of the Raptors on the booster on the second test flight, IFT-2, to improve reliability of the engines:
Did SpaceX throttle down the booster engines on the IFT-2 test launch to prevent engine failures?https://exoscientist.blogspot.com/2023/12/did-spacex-throttle-down-booster.html
Running an engine at reduced throttle reduces the pressure levels within the engine, high pressure being a major cause of engine fuel leaks. The Starship upper stage though was run at near full throttle on IFT-2, perhaps because performance would be reduced too much if it also was run at reduced throttle.
The result was the booster engines worked fine, at least on ascent, while the Starship exploded on ascent on IFT-2. SpaceX has said the Starship RUD was due to an intentional LOX dump they performed to keep that flight as suborbital. However, many knowledgeable observers doubted the LOX dump alone would have caused a RUD. They argue due to the tendency of the Raptor to leak fuel, it's more likely that plus the LOX dump caused the RUD.
For the third test flight, IFT-3, after reviewing both propellant burn rates and the acceleration profile of the flight, I'm suggesting SpaceX learned their lesson from the second test flight, and this time both stages were run at reduced throttle on this flight. And this time both stages were able to complete the ascent stage of the flight successfully.
However, this does reduce the payload capability of the launcher. Elon has acknowledged this radically reduced payload capability in his recent update. But it needs to be explained by SpaceX why the payload is so greatly reduced. If it is because the Raptor needs to be run at reduced thrust in order to be reliable then that is an extremely important thing to acknowledge, and to inform NASA on it, because the thrust levels of a rocket go into assessing what its actual capabilities are.
There is another very important issue about Raptor reliability. Multiple times a Raptor has undergone a RUD doing a relight during prior testing of the Starship planned landing procedure. And on this last Superheavy/Starship test flight as well Raptors underwent a RUD during the booster landing procedure. The boostback back burn appeared to have occurred successfully. But there was venting gas after the bostback back burn suggesting there may have been a fuel leak here as well.
Note for a successful reuse of the Starship and booster, successful relights have to occur both for boostback burns and landing burns. Then in none of the prior Starship landing tests nor of the Superheavy/Starship flight tests have any flights shown successful Raptor relights without leaking fuel and catching fire, and often undergoing a RUD.
SpaceX has called one test of the Starship landing test, SN15, successful because it managed to land without exploding. But it is important to note even in that test a Raptor leaked fuel and caught fire prior to landing. It's just on that test SpaceX managed to extinguish the fire before the ship exploded:
Note that in the SpaceX plans for a reusable Starship it absolutely can not work if the Raptor can not be made to relight reliably. SpaceX in not publicly providing full mission duration, full thrust testing information on the Raptors have not shown this also for relights of the Raptor.
That is why it is so important for a launch company to publicly provide details on full mission duration, full thrust level static engine testing.
SpaceX needs a true Chief Engineer to provide such details in a forthright manner.
Robert Clark
4 comments:
I think it is way too early in the testing of experimental prototypes to conclude that the Starship/Superheavy design is falling short on capability. Those test vehicles bear only superficial resemblance to whatever the final product will be, and not even SpaceX yet knows what that final product will actually be. All they have is a concept and paper design analyses that predict what it is supposed to be. Things quite often turn out different. Some better, some worse. We'll see, in any event.
As for the engines, every article that flies is tested at McGregor. There are many multi-minute burns in that testing, as well as many short several-second burns. There are the "stock" Raptor-2's, and there are the still-experimental Raptor-3's. It is hard (impossible?) to tell who is who from only the sound. However, by the time they leave here, supposedly (!) there is no further need for a full-length burn in South Texas, just a short confirmation demo that everything still functions. You should not be fooled by those short confirmation demos. Most folks never hear (and none of us see) what happens at McGregor.
As for Elon Musk as "chief engineer" of SpaceX, I have already opined about that. By education and training he is no engineer. He is not registered in Texas as an engineer, and I doubt he could pass the exam. To call himself an engineer and fully act as the chief engineer of a Texas-based firm is very likely a violation of the Texas engineering practice act. However, SpaceX is actually headquartered in California, at least for now. I don't know what's legal there. What I do know is that big money talks, louder than the law. So there it is.
GW
I happen to think NASA was blind-sided by the low 50 ton payload capability of the current version. I really think NASA was of the opinion the current version was the one that would be doing the Artemis lander missions. That they have to wait for V2 or maybe even V3 to do it puts further severe strain on the Artemis schedule which is already strained to the breaking point.
Bob Clark
Rob your thottle down analysis looks to have been decisivly confirmed. But what is not clear is if that is the ONLY cause of the massive performance loss that Musk has admitted too. Given that we saw no payload simulator at all on the last flight despite a sup orbital trajectory leads me to belive the payload capability was infact zero.
Could we be looking at a situation in which vehicle weight has dragged down the payload to 40 to 50 tons and then the throttledown further drops that to zero, or visa versa? So when Musk says the present vehicle would have the 40 to 50 ton payload it is with the assumtion of 40 to 50 tons of mass shaving, or with a restoration of a large portion of the missing thrust or both? Such 'optimism' would be very consistent with Musk's mentality.
The numbers Musk presented for the IFT 3 show a total liftoff thrust well above your estimate. Musks number would be constent with Raptor 2 operating at 94% which is a good healthy liftoff throttle. So either they throttled down the Raptor 2 to 75% or were actuaually using Raptor 1 engines at close to full throttle. If the Raptor 2 can not safely operate at any more thrust then the Raptor 1 then that is really bad news as it indicates they may have hit a wall and ALL of the Raptor 2 development work has basically come to naught if the engine can't survive the increased thrust and has to be treated as if it were a Raptor 1.
Oddly the StarShip 2 liftoff thrust total needs MORE then Raptor 2 thrust levels, 250 tons rather then 230 tons, while version 3 requires more then version 3 Raptor, Musk even states the 'ultimate' goal for the engine and how this is used in the vehicle design. It seem at each iteration the vehicle is being designed around the maximum performance that the engine iteration could achive rather then the minimum, so all payload numbers assume maturation of their respective engines.
As for Artemis I am confident that SpaceX will not deliver a viable HLS on time and that National Team is likely to be the first lander to return to the moon if they complete anywhere near their target date. Artemis will simply slip to that data and NASA will have egg on it's face for downselecting to SpaceX in what I belive was a unjustified and corrupt move by the interum administrator.
Thanks Kenneth. See here for an attempt to get the low ~50 ton payload for the Starship by using worse weight and engine specs. I still got 100 tons to orbit:
https://x.com/RGregoryClark/status/1778407843005182305
Bob Clark
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