Towards return of Europe to dominance of the launch market.

 Copyright 2023 Robert Clark

ESA delays Vega C return to flight to late 2024
Jeff Foust
October 2, 2023
https://spacenews.com/esa-delays-vega-c-return-to-flight-to-late-2024/

 Large solids like on the Vega and as used on the Ariane 5 and 6 are not price competitive. Note this is true for large solids. Small solid side boosters like used on the Atlas V and Delta IV might be only 1/8th the size of the core stage, with a concomitant small increase in cost. But when the solids are large size such as being as much or more than the size of the core such as on the Ariane 5 and 6 or actually being the core like on the Vega, the bulk of the high expense of the rocket comes from the solids.

See discussion here:

Friday, May 19, 2023
Who in European space will ask the impertinent question: How much would it cost to add a second Vulcain to the Ariane 5/6?
https://exoscientist.blogspot.com/2023/05/who-in-european-space-will-ask.html

 The cost of the two SRB’s on the Ariane 62 cost €40 million out of the €75 million cost. So the rest of the two-stage rocket is only €35 million. Then those two large SRB’s cost more than the entire rest of the rocket.

 As I argued there it would be cheaper just to put additional Vulcain(s) on the core and dispense with theSRB’s entirely. An additional Vulcain would add €10 million to the price to bring it to €45 million.

 Using all liquid propulsion also results in a cheaper rocket than the Vega. To see what such an all-liquid replacement for the Vega would look like see discussion here:

Saturday, November 29, 2014
A half-size Ariane for manned spaceflight.
https://exoscientist.blogspot.com/2014/11/a-half-size-ariane-for-manned.html

 By cutting down the core’s propellant size to a bit less than half and using a smaller ca. 10 ton upper stage, so it could be launched by a single Vulcain, you get an all-liquid two-stage rocket capable of about 5,000 kg to LEO. This compares to the 2,000 kg payload to LEO of the Vega.

 Quite important is the better cost per kilo for the all-liquid case. The Vega costs about €35 million for that 2,000 kg to LEO. But taking into account our all-liquid replacement to the Vega is half-size to the all-liquid Ariane 6, the cost conceivably could be in the range of only half the €45 million estimate of the all-liquid Ariane 6, so only ca. €22 million for a 5,000 kg to LEO launcher(!)

 And what about reusability? The Space Shuttle abundantly showed you don’t save on reusing solids. But SpaceX has abundantly showed you do save significantly on reusing a liquid-fueled booster. SpaceX reduces the price on the Falcon 9 from $60 million to $40 million, by reusing the booster only, so a price reduction of about one-third. If the same price reduction would apply for reusing the booster only for our half-sized Ariane, that would be a price of only €15 million for a 5,000 kg launcher(!)

 Europe could then dominate the market by offering rockets of differing sizes. For small payloads at 5,000 kg or less, a reused half-sized Ariane at €15 million. For larger payloads at ca. 10 tons, €30 million for the reused two-Vulcan Ariane. And for payloads in the Falcon 9 range of 20 tons, €36 million for the reused three-Vulcain Ariane 6.

  Bob Clark